The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most powerful climate phenomena affecting global fisheries. As El Niño conditions re-emerge in 2026, Chinese mackerel (Pacific mackerel, Scomber japonicus; 鲐鲅鱼/青占鱼) — a cornerstone of China's frozen seafood export industry — faces significant supply disruption and price volatility.
This analysis examines how the 2026 El Niño event is impacting Chinese mackerel catches, what it means for pricing, and how importers can strategically navigate this challenging market.
1. The 2026 El Niño: Current Status & Intensity
The El Niño event developing through 2026 is characterized by sustained above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Key indicators as of August 2026:
- Niño 3.4 Index: Running at +1.2°C to +1.5°C above the long-term mean, classifying this as a moderate-to-strong El Niño event.
- Walker Circulation: Weakened trade winds across the tropical Pacific, consistent with mature El Niño conditions.
- Subsurface Temperature: A deep thermocline in the eastern Pacific and shallow thermocline in the western Pacific — the classic El Niño ocean structure.
- Forecast: Most dynamical models project El Niño conditions persisting through late 2026, with a possible transition to ENSO-neutral by early 2027.
This event, while not as extreme as the 2015-16 "Godzilla" El Niño, is comparable in intensity to the 2009-10 event — which caused significant disruption to Northwest Pacific pelagic fisheries.
2. How El Niño Affects Chinese Mackerel Fisheries
El Niño impacts Chinese mackerel through multiple pathways — oceanographic, biological, and operational:
2.1 Ocean Warming & Stock Migration
During El Niño, the western Pacific warm pool expands eastward and SSTs in the East China Sea and Yellow Sea rise 1-3°C above normal. Mackerel — a temperate species preferring 10-20°C water — respond by:
- Shifting northward into higher latitudes, moving beyond the range of traditional Chinese fishing grounds around Zhoushan and the East China Sea.
- Migrating to deeper, cooler waters, making them harder and more expensive to catch with standard purse seine and gillnet gear.
- Altering spawning patterns, as elevated SSTs disrupt the timing and location of spring spawning events, potentially reducing recruitment success for the following year class.
2.2 Reduced Catch Volumes
Historical data from previous El Niño events shows a clear pattern of reduced Chinese mackerel landings:
| El Niño Event | NW Pacific Mackerel Catch Change | China Coastal Catch Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1997-98 (Very Strong) | -30% to -40% | Severe; Zhoushan fleet idled for weeks |
| 2009-10 (Moderate-Strong) | -15% to -25% | Significant; northward shift of stocks |
| 2015-16 (Very Strong) | -20% to -35% | Severe; Dalian & Zhoushan heavily affected |
| 2023-24 (Strong) | -10% to -18% | Moderate; adaptive fleet response |
| 2026 (Moderate-Strong, ongoing) | -15% to -25% (projected) | Significant; early season shortfalls confirmed |
For 2026, preliminary data from the Zhoushan and Qingdao fishing ports indicates that spring season (March-June) mackerel landings are down approximately 18-22% compared to 2025. The summer-fall season (July-October) is expected to see a 10-15% deficit as the thermocline deepens and stocks remain dispersed.
2.3 Quality & Size Composition Changes
El Niño doesn't just reduce volume — it changes what's caught:
- Smaller average size: Fish that remain accessible tend to be younger, smaller individuals. The proportion of 200-300g fish has increased, while 300-500g+ fish — the premium export grade — are harder to find.
- Lower fat content: Warmer waters alter the mackerel's food web (zooplankton shifts), resulting in fish with lower oil content. This affects both taste and frozen shelf life.
- Shorter optimal fishing windows: Unstable weather patterns reduce the number of safe fishing days, compressing the catch into shorter, more intense periods.
3. Price Analysis: Where Mackerel Prices Are Heading
The combination of reduced supply, changed size composition, and persistent demand has driven significant price movements in 2026:
3.1 Raw Material (Landing) Prices
Chinese coastal mackerel landing prices have risen sharply since the El Niño signal strengthened in Q1 2026:
| Product | Q4 2025 FOB | Q1 2026 FOB | Q2 2026 FOB | Q3 2026 FOB (est.) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pacific Mackerel 300-500g | $1,650/MT | $1,780/MT | $1,920/MT | $2,000-2,150/MT |
| Pacific Mackerel 200-300g | $1,450/MT | $1,550/MT | $1,680/MT | $1,750-1,900/MT |
| Horse Mackerel (China) | $1,250/MT | $1,320/MT | $1,420/MT | $1,500-1,650/MT |
| Indian Mackerel | $1,350/MT | $1,430/MT | $1,560/MT | $1,650-1,800/MT |
Key observations:
- Premium sizes are seeing the steepest increases: 300-500g Pacific mackerel is up ~16% since Q4 2025, reflecting the acute shortage of larger fish.
- Horse mackerel is relatively resilient: With broader distribution across the NW African and Chinese fishing grounds, horse mackerel supply has been less affected, but prices are still tracking upward.
- Q3 2026 will likely see peak prices: As summer catches disappoint and pre-Ramadan demand from West Africa kicks in, expect the tightest supply-demand gap in August-September.
3.2 Price Drivers Beyond El Niño
While El Niño is the dominant story, several compounding factors are amplifying price pressure:
- Chinese fishing moratorium: The annual May-August seasonal ban further constrains domestic supply during the critical summer period. This year's moratorium timing coincides with peak El Niño SST anomalies.
- Fuel cost increases: Higher diesel prices in 2026 have increased operating costs for the Chinese distant-water fleet, pushing up the minimum viable selling price.
- Reefer container rates: Shipping costs from Ningbo/Shanghai to West Africa remain at $3,800-4,800/40'FCL, adding to landed cost pressures for importers.
- Currency dynamics: A relatively strong USD against the Naira (Nigeria) and Cedi (Ghana) is squeezing buyer purchasing power, creating a paradox where higher FOB prices meet weaker demand-side capacity.
- Compensatory demand from other species: Reduced squid and tuna availability (also El Niño-affected) is redirecting some buyer demand toward mackerel as a lower-cost alternative.
4. Regional Market Impacts
4.1 West Africa (Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire)
West African buyers — already the largest mackerel import market — face a double squeeze: higher CIF prices and weaker local currencies. Expect:
- Shift toward smaller sizes (200-300g) and horse mackerel as price-competitive alternatives.
- Increased order deferrals as buyers wait for post-moratorium supply in September-October.
- More direct sourcing from Chinese exporters to cut intermediary margins.
4.2 Southeast Asia (Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam)
Southeast Asian markets are somewhat buffered by domestic catches and proximity to Indian mackerel grounds, but:
- Pacific mackerel import volumes from China are down 12-18% year-on-year.
- Buyers with existing relationships are getting priority allocation from Chinese exporters.
- Price-sensitive Thai buyers are increasingly requesting mixed-size lots to manage cost.
4.3 Middle East (Egypt, Saudi Arabia)
Middle Eastern demand remains relatively price-inelastic, as mackerel is a staple protein. This market is absorbing available supply at higher prices, competing with West African buyers for limited Chinese-origin containers.
5. Historical Comparison: El Niño Price Cycles
Looking at how mackerel prices responded to past El Niño events provides context for what's ahead:
| Period | ENSO State | Price Movement (Pacific Mackerel 300-500g) | Recovery Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2009-2010 | El Niño → La Niña | +22% peak to trough | 6-9 months post-peak |
| 2011-2012 | La Niña (cool) | -8% (supply rebound) | Immediate |
| 2015-2016 | Very Strong El Niño | +35% peak to trough | 12-15 months |
| 2018-2019 | El Niño (weak) | +8% | 3-4 months |
| 2023-2024 | Strong El Niño | +18% | 8-10 months |
| 2026 | Moderate-Strong El Niño | +16% so far; +20-28% projected peak | 6-12 months post-event |
Key insight: Price recovery begins when ENSO-neutral or La Niña conditions return and fish stocks redistribute to accessible fishing grounds. For the current event, this is most likely in Q1-Q2 2027.
6. Strategic Recommendations for Importers
6.1 Sourcing Strategy
- Lock in contracts now: With prices still rising, securing Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 contracts at current levels provides a hedge against further increases. Chinese exporters with good raw material access are accepting forward orders.
- Diversify origins: Don't rely solely on Chinese Pacific mackerel. Consider:
- South Korean mackerel (similar species, increasingly available for export)
- Moroccan horse mackerel (for West African markets)
- Japanese mackerel (premium quality for price-insensitive buyers)
- Adjust size specifications: Be flexible on size grades. Accepting 200-300g alongside 300-500g gives your supplier more options to fill containers.
- Build supplier relationships: In tight markets, established buyers get priority. Work with exporters who have 10+ years of track record and HACCP/BRC certifications.
6.2 Pricing Strategy
- Absorb selectively: Rather than passing all cost increases to customers, consider partial absorption on high-volume items while protecting margins on premium sizes.
- Introduce tiered pricing: Offer customers a choice between premium larger sizes at higher prices and standard/smaller sizes at more stable rates.
- Plan for Q1 2027 relief: Historical patterns suggest prices will ease 6-12 months after the El Niño peak. Structure contracts to reflect this expected normalization.
6.3 Quality Assurance
El Niño-affected fish may have lower fat content and different size profiles. Extra vigilance is needed:
- Request pre-loading inspection reports with fat content analysis.
- Specify glazing requirements carefully — lower-fat fish benefits from slightly higher glazing for protection.
- Verify size grade accuracy — in tight supply, some suppliers may blend grades.
Navigating the El Niño Market?
We've been exporting frozen mackerel through every ENSO cycle since 2008. HACCP & BRC certified. Pre-loading inspection with fat content reporting for every container.
Get Current Prices →7. Outlook: What to Expect in Late 2026 & Early 2027
- Q3 2026 (Sep): Peak El Niño influence. Mackerel prices likely at or near their 2026 high. Supply is tightest due to the fishing moratorium and ocean conditions.
- Q4 2026 (Oct-Dec): Post-moratorium catches begin, but volumes will be below normal. Prices remain elevated but the rate of increase slows. Smart buyers are contracting now for Q1 delivery.
- Q1 2027 (Jan-Mar): If ENSO-neutral conditions develop as forecast, expect gradual stock redistribution. Prices begin easing, particularly for 200-300g sizes. 300-500g may remain tight into Q2.
- Q2 2027 (Apr-Jun): Normalization expected. Spring fishing season should see improved catches as ocean temperatures return to near-average. Prices trending toward pre-El Niño levels.
Conclusion
The 2026 El Niño is creating real challenges for Chinese mackerel supply — catches are down 15-25%, premium sizes are scarce, and prices have risen 16%+ with further increases likely. But this is a known, cyclical phenomenon, and the industry has navigated it before.
The importers who fare best during El Niño events are those who act early: securing supply contracts, diversifying sources, adjusting product specifications, and maintaining strong supplier relationships. The price cycle will turn — historically within 6-12 months of the event's end — but the relationships you build during the tough times will serve you well for years to come.
At Poseidon, we've weathered every ENSO cycle since 2008. Our fleet's deep-water capability and multi-port operations (Zhoushan, Qingdao, Dalian) give us options that single-port exporters don't have. If you're looking for a reliable mackerel partner through this cycle, let's talk.